A psychology expert offers a tool kit for thinking more clearly and making better decisions, explaining how to reframe problems using simplified concepts from science and statistics, including the law of large numbers, statistical regression, cost-benefit analysis, and causation and correlation.

Thinking about thought. Everything's an inference ; The power of the situation ; The rational unconscious -- The formerly dismal science. Should you think like an economist? ; Spilt milk and free lunch ; Foiling foibles -- Coding, counting, correlation, and causality. Odds and Ns ; Linked up -- Experiments. Ignore the HiPPO ; Experiments natural and experiments proper ; Eekonomics ; Don't ask, can't tell -- Thinking, straight and curved. Logic ; Dialecticism -- Knowing the world. KISS and tell ; Keeping it real -- The tools of the lay scientist.